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 stochastic program




Adaptive Learning-based Surrogate Method for Stochastic Programs with Implicitly Decision-dependent Uncertainty

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a class of stochastic programming problems where the implicitly decision-dependent random variable follows a nonparametric regression model with heteroscedastic error. The Clarke subdifferential and surrogate functions are not readily obtainable due to the latent decision dependency. To deal with such a computational difficulty, we develop an adaptive learning-based surrogate method that integrates the simulation scheme and statistical estimates to construct estimation-based surrogate functions in a way that the simulation process is adaptively guided by the algorithmic procedure. We establish the non-asymptotic convergence rate analysis in terms of $(ν, δ)$-near stationarity in expectation under variable proximal parameters and batch sizes, which exhibits the superior convergence performance and enhanced stability in both theory and practice. We provide numerical results with both synthetic and real data which illustrate the benefits of the proposed algorithm in terms of algorithmic stability and efficiency.


Wait-Less Offline Tuning and Re-solving for Online Decision Making

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Online linear programming (OLP) has found broad applications in revenue management and resource allocation. State-of-the-art OLP algorithms achieve low regret by repeatedly solving linear programming (LP) subproblems that incorporate updated resource information. However, LP-based methods are computationally expensive and often inefficient for large-scale applications. In contrast, recent first-order OLP algorithms are more computationally efficient but typically suffer from worse regret guarantees. To address these shortcomings, we propose a new algorithm that combines the strengths of LP-based and first-order OLP methods. The algorithm re-solves the LP subproblems periodically at a predefined frequency $f$ and uses the latest dual prices to guide online decision-making. In addition, a first-order method runs in parallel during each interval between LP re-solves, smoothing resource consumption. Our algorithm achieves $\mathscr{O}(\log (T/f) + \sqrt{f})$ regret, delivering a "wait-less" online decision-making process that balances the computational efficiency of first-order methods and the superior regret guarantee of LP-based methods.


Forecasting Outside the Box: Application-Driven Optimal Pointwise Forecasts for Stochastic Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The exponential growth in data availability in recent years has led to new formulations of data-driven optimization problems. One such formulation is that of stochastic optimization problems with contextual information, where the goal is to optimize the expected value of a certain function given some contextual information (also called features) that accompany the main data of interest. The contextual information then allows for a better estimation of the quantity of interest via machine learning methods, thereby leading to better solutions. Oftentimes, however, machine learning methods yield just a pointwise estimate instead of an entire distribution. In this paper we show that, when the problem to be solved is a class of two-stage stochastic programs (namely, those with fixed recourse matrix and fixed costs), under mild assumptions the problem can be solved with just one scenario. While such a scenario - which does not have be unique - is usually unknown, we present an integrated learning and optimization procedure that yields the best approximation of that scenario within the modeler's pre-specified set of parameterized forecast functions. Numerical results conducted with inventory problems from the literature (with synthetic data) as well as a bike-sharing problem with real data demonstrate that the proposed approach performs well when compared to benchmark methods from the literature.


Dynamic Decision Making in Engineering System Design: A Deep Q-Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Engineering system design, viewed as a decision-making process, faces challenges due to complexity and uncertainty. In this paper, we present a framework proposing the use of the Deep Q-learning algorithm to optimize the design of engineering systems. We outline a step-by-step framework for optimizing engineering system designs. The goal is to find policies that maximize the output of a simulation model given multiple sources of uncertainties. The proposed algorithm handles linear and non-linear multi-stage stochastic problems, where decision variables are discrete, and the objective function and constraints are assessed via a Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework by solving two engineering system design problems in the presence of multiple uncertainties, such as price and demand.


Contextual Reinforcement Learning for Offshore Wind Farm Bidding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a framework for applying reinforcement learning to contextual two-stage stochastic optimization and apply this framework to the problem of energy market bidding of an off-shore wind farm. Reinforcement learning could potentially be used to learn close to optimal solutions for first stage variables of a two-stage stochastic program under different contexts. Under the proposed framework, these solutions would be learned without having to solve the full two-stage stochastic program. We present initial results of training using the DDPG algorithm and present intended future steps to improve performance.


Prescriptive PCA: Dimensionality Reduction for Two-stage Stochastic Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we consider the alignment between an upstream dimensionality reduction task of learning a low-dimensional representation of a set of high-dimensional data and a downstream optimization task of solving a stochastic program parameterized by said representation. In this case, standard dimensionality reduction methods (e.g., principal component analysis) may not perform well, as they aim to maximize the amount of information retained in the representation and do not generally reflect the importance of such information in the downstream optimization problem. To address this problem, we develop a prescriptive dimensionality reduction framework that aims to minimize the degree of suboptimality in the optimization phase. For the case where the downstream stochastic optimization problem has an expected value objective, we show that prescriptive dimensionality reduction can be performed via solving a distributionally-robust optimization problem, which admits a semidefinite programming relaxation. Computational experiments based on a warehouse transshipment problem and a vehicle repositioning problem show that our approach significantly outperforms principal component analysis with real and synthetic data sets.


Numerical Methods for Convex Multistage Stochastic Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Optimization problems involving sequential decisions in a stochastic environment were studied in Stochastic Programming (SP), Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) and Markov Decision Processes (MDP). In this paper we mainly concentrate on SP and SOC modelling approaches. In these frameworks there are natural situations when the considered problems are convex. Classical approach to sequential optimization is based on dynamic programming. It has the problem of the so-called ``Curse of Dimensionality", in that its computational complexity increases exponentially with increase of dimension of state variables. Recent progress in solving convex multistage stochastic problems is based on cutting planes approximations of the cost-to-go (value) functions of dynamic programming equations. Cutting planes type algorithms in dynamical settings is one of the main topics of this paper. We also discuss Stochastic Approximation type methods applied to multistage stochastic optimization problems. From the computational complexity point of view, these two types of methods seem to be complimentary to each other. Cutting plane type methods can handle multistage problems with a large number of stages, but a relatively smaller number of state (decision) variables. On the other hand, stochastic approximation type methods can only deal with a small number of stages, but a large number of decision variables.


Automatic Differentiation of Programs with Discrete Randomness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic differentiation (AD), a technique for constructing new programs which compute the derivative of an original program, has become ubiquitous throughout scientific computing and deep learning due to the improved performance afforded by gradient-based optimization. However, AD systems have been restricted to the subset of programs that have a continuous dependence on parameters. Programs that have discrete stochastic behaviors governed by distribution parameters, such as flipping a coin with probability $p$ of being heads, pose a challenge to these systems because the connection between the result (heads vs tails) and the parameters ($p$) is fundamentally discrete. In this paper we develop a new reparameterization-based methodology that allows for generating programs whose expectation is the derivative of the expectation of the original program. We showcase how this method gives an unbiased and low-variance estimator which is as automated as traditional AD mechanisms. We demonstrate unbiased forward-mode AD of discrete-time Markov chains, agent-based models such as Conway's Game of Life, and unbiased reverse-mode AD of a particle filter. Our code package is available at https://github.com/gaurav-arya/StochasticAD.jl.